28 Nov 2016
The threat posed by anyone intending to cause carnage with a firearm is extremely difficult to predict or plan for. Clearly there is a wider range of people or groups who could potentially use firearms as part of an attack on a crowded place within the UK including people with mental health issues
Introduction
Recent terrorist attacks within mainland Europe, primarily our neighbour, France have indicated a change in attack methodology.
We in the UK have witnessed the development of small dynamic teams of well-armed and equipped extremists targeting crowded places and inflicting high numbers of causalities including many fatalities in a fairly condensed period of time before any credible and effective response has been mounted by the Police.
Whilst we are all aware of what has taken place and the deadly nature of this type of ‘pop up’ attack, there still appears to be a sort of lethargy or reluctance for organisations and businesses to invest in the development of their capability to respond or react to an attack of this nature within their areas of responsibility.
This short narrative is an extract from a wider paper written by Chris Dickson who is a security consultant working within Covenant and who has conducted a significant amount of project work aligned to emergency incident response planning and training with a diverse range of client groups including local authorities, the education sector and media organisations.
The aim of publishing this is to encourage some discussion relating to the subject.
Perceptions of Likelihood
I am of course acutely aware that proportionality must play a key part of balancing out the overall likelihood associated with an active shooter style attack or incident within a crowded place such as a shopping centre, sport or entertainment venue, major transport hub or commercial building.
I also acknowledge that, to date, the UK mainland has thankfully not suffered a significant attack by terrorists or extremists (domestic or otherwise) employing firearms as part of their attack methodology.
Whilst we all hopefully accept that an attack of this nature within a crowded place would have the potential to result in many casualties and fatalities and create large-scale fear throughout the UK, we use the risk likelihood ‘yardstick’ to reassure ourselves that it remains highly unlikely.
Interestingly, the government has instructed the Police Service, over the last few years, to invest heavily in the development of their firearms incident management strategies and supporting tactical response capabilities.
The investment in equipment, doctrine and training has resulted in the UK forming a more capable and mission ready armed response aligned to an evolving threat.
This preparation and the substantial investment in training and equipment is clearly based on more than just enthusiastic guess work. The UK Government, and the Police Service are obviously led by credible intelligence provided by the intelligence community and security services. This information is ably supported by a clear assessment of threat and risk involving the examination of the likelihood and potential impact within our communities.
This is a clear indication that the overall evolving ‘future’ risk of a significant firearms style attack within crowded places in the UK has been considered to be much higher than previously thought.
Likelihood is organic!
It is not surprising that those responsible for security and safety within the commercial sector are not readily accepting that the threat and associated risks aligned to an active shooter style attack within their areas of responsibility is something that is evolving and more likely than before.
Unfortunately, the ‘buying in’ to any services such as awareness training or the enhancement of emergency response procedures has always been a challenge. Some of the feedback I have been given for not wanting to invest into or for them to explore planning and training options has included:
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